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29 February

New Year, New Heights

By in Market Update

Quick Take: Stocks repeatedly hit all-time highs as they rallied for a third straight month.[1],[2] Fed officials held interest rates steady while Chair Jay Powell all but dashed hopes of a March rate cut.[3] 

 

Stock markets rang in the new year with optimism, notching new record highs to mark a bull run that started in October 2022.[4] Investors have been anticipating an expansion in corporate profits as the economy stays on solid ground, fueled by expected interest rate cuts in 2024.[5]

In the final week of January, a positive Treasury funding announcement (Quarterly Refunding Announcement or “QRA”) pushed the S&P 500 to a sixth record high close for the year.[6] The Treasury Department said it plans to borrow $760 billion in the first quarter, $55 billion lower than expected.[7]

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-30/world-war-iii-dr-strangelove-or-how-i-learned-to-love-markets (The Bloomberg chart starts the trading day at 100 to easily track the market % up and down)

 

Investors have become more sensitive to Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcements because of the size of government deficits. The last two quarterly refunding announcements prompted turning points in markets, where the August announcement requiring increased funding spooked investors, while November’s measures to manage debt levels supported a year-end rally.[8]

In January, although the Treasury still boosted the size of its quarterly issuance of long-term debt, they suggested that no more increases would come until next year.[9] This could support demand for Treasurys. By the end of the month, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasurys slipped to just below 4%, a hair above where it started the year. Bond prices rise when yields fall.[10]

Solid sentiment in bond markets spilled over into stocks despite Big Tech earnings that weren’t strong enough for Wall Street.[11] Total equity positioning is up to a six-month high.[12] Tech remains dominant, as Big Tech has surged 80% in the past year, while the average stock in the S&P is up only 3%.[13]

Yet for six straight weeks through the end of January, investors poured new money into the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. [14]

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-02/wall-street-bulls-unscathed-even-as-the-big-tech-trade-splinters

 

Markets dipped after the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) meeting, though major stock market indices logged another positive monthly performance.[15]

 

Fed Confirms Peak Rates

At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (“FOMC”), officials held interest rates unchanged while Chair Jay Powell all but dashed hopes of a March rate cut when he called it “unlikely.”[16]

The Fed has pledged to begin rate cuts before the one-year rate reaches its 2% target.[17] Powell acknowledged that inflation has shown encouraging signs, declining to below 2% on a six-month basis. [18] However, he stressed the need to watch data for continued progress before considering rate cuts. [19] The goal is to see inflation on a sustainable path down before easing policy.

As of the December meeting, policymakers envisioned cutting the policy rate by 75 basis points in 2024, with updates of forecasts to come at the March meeting. [20] Given the possible delay in rate cuts, investors shifted their expectations to May as the earliest potential rate cut.[21]

Recent positive economic data has been promising, and Powell notably said that the latest readings showed low unemployment was posing less of a threat to the 2% inflation goal.[22] Data also revealed that US labor costs were cooling more than expected, which should give the Fed room to start cutting rates this year. [23] Companies added a smaller-than-expected 107,000 jobs in January while worker pay growth slowed. [24]

While the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates are likely at their peak for this tightening cycle, Powell emphasized that the central bank is not yet ready to declare victory over inflation or declare a “soft landing.” [25] To “stick” a soft landing, they’ll also need to manage interest rates down carefully.

 

Conflict in the Middle East

One reason Powell might not declare immediate victory over inflation could be raging conflicts abroad.

As the Israeli-Hamas war continues past its third month, tensions that have spilled over include attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels.[26] Iran-backed Houthis started launching missile and drone attacks at vessels in the Red Sea shortly after the beginning of the conflict, impacting one of the world’s most densely packed shipping channels just south of the Suez canal.[27] Shipping companies are rerouting traffic through slower routes.

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-30/world-war-iii-dr-strangelove-or-how-i-learned-to-love-markets

 

As a result, ocean freight shipping rates are rising. This is a chart showing the price of Shanghai containerized shipping (including routes through both the Panama and Suez canals).

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-30/world-war-iii-dr-strangelove-or-how-i-learned-to-love-markets

 

Markets often watch the Middle East with bated breath, wondering if tensions will also ignite oil prices. Wall Street generally relies on the oil market as a barometer, and if oil prices remain stable, they interpret it as a sign that the risk isn’t as significant. So far, as the conflict has broadened, prices of a key benchmark, Brent crude oil, have shifted higher.[28] However, the market seems relatively calm so far, but energy prices remain a risk to monitor.

 

Looking Ahead

So far, international conflicts seem to have limited impact on US markets. As the S&P 500 hovers around all-time highs, investors have been leaning on signs of a strong economy to power through.[29] Overall financial conditions have also remained accommodative – the biggest surprise of 2023 was probably the level of liquidity available given how aggressively the Fed hiked rates.[30] Some of those conditions may be set to reverse, including the Fed’s program propping up regional banks that expires in March.[31]

How long the stock rally can keep going is anyone’s guess. Longtime readers will know that we don’t jump in the fray of day-to-day market predictions and volatility. The pendulum can swing in either direction at the drop of a hat. That’s why we design our strategies for the long term. The level of risk in your portfolio aligns with your capacity and willingness to take on risk, even in the face of market uncertainties and fluctuations.

Please don’t hesitate to connect with us for a review or a catch-up call if we haven’t had the opportunity to speak directly with you in the new year. We are available to discuss any topics that may be affecting you, whether it be related to the markets and current events, your portfolio, changes in your personal life, or your overarching financial goals. Your thoughts and aspirations are important to us, and we are eager to provide the support and insights you need to help make 2024 a good year for all.

Your Friends at JSF

 

 

 

 


The information expressed herein are those of JSF Financial, LLC, it does not necessarily reflect the views of NewEdge Securities, Inc. Neither JSF Financial LLC nor NewEdge Securities, Inc. gives tax or legal advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation or recommendation for the purchase, sale or holding of any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

Historical data shown represents past performance and does not guarantee comparable future results. The information and statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources believed to be reliable but in no way are guaranteed by JSF Financial, LLC or NewEdge Securities, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. The information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the trades referenced in this material before investing.

Asset Allocation and Diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes Treasury securities, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market.

TLT-iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.

The Nasdaq Composite is a market-capitalization-weighted index consisting of all Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds or deben­ture securities.

Treasury Bond- is a U.S. government debt security with a fixed interest rate and maturity between two and 10 years.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period. GDP is the most commonly used measure of economic activity.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.­­

Sources:

[1] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-01-31-2024-e0dcca54

[2] Dow Jones, S&P 500 score 6th record close of 2024, bolstered by Treasury funding update in pivotal week for markets | Morningstar

[3] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[4] S&P 500 confirms bull market with record close | Reuters

[5] Stocks Are in a Bull Market. What Does That Mean? – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[6] Dow Jones, S&P 500 score 6th record close of 2024, bolstered by Treasury funding update in pivotal week for markets | Morningstar

[7] Dow Jones, S&P 500 score 6th record close of 2024, bolstered by Treasury funding update in pivotal week for markets | Morningstar

[8] World War III: Dr. Strangelove, or How I Learned to Love Markets – Bloomberg

[9] S&P 500 Has Its Worst Fed-Decision Day Since March: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[10] Stocks Start 2024 With Third Straight Month of Gains – WSJ

[11] Big Tech earnings are here. Fasten your seat belts. (yahoo.com)

[12] Bull Market in Stocks Powers Even as the Big-Tech Trade Splinters – Bloomberg

[13] Bull Market in Stocks Powers Even as the Big-Tech Trade Splinters – Bloomberg

[14] Bull Market in Stocks Powers Even as the Big-Tech Trade Splinters – Bloomberg

[15] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-01-31-2024-e0dcca54

[16] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[17] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[18] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[19] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[20] Fed’s Powell sees lower rates on the horizon as inflation ebbs, economy bounces ahead | Reuters

[21] Fed’s Powell sees lower rates on the horizon as inflation ebbs, economy bounces ahead | Reuters

[22] Jay Powell says Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in March are ‘not base case’ (ft.com)

[23] S&P 500 Has Its Worst Fed-Decision Day Since March: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[24] S&P 500 Has Its Worst Fed-Decision Day Since March: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[25] Fed meeting today: Live updates on January Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

[26] How Middle East escalation could impact oil prices & global trade in the Red Sea : The Indicator from Planet Money : NPR

[27] Who are the Houthis and how did the US and UK strikes on Yemen come about? | Yemen | The Guardian

[28] World War III: Dr. Strangelove, or How I Learned to Love Markets – Bloomberg

[29] Bull Market in Stocks Powers Even as the Big-Tech Trade Splinters – Bloomberg)

[30] Are We in a Bull Market Yet? (morganstanley.com)

[31] The End of Easy Money (morganstanley.com)

 

Read more

19 January

Defying Expectations

By in Market Update

Quick Take: Stocks and bonds defied expectations in 2023 as stocks soared and volatile bonds ended up nearly where they started the year.[1]

 

Flash back to the start of 2023, and the mood across markets was glum. Analysts, expecting a looming recession, advised a shift away from stocks towards the relative safety of bonds.[2] To the surprise of many, expert consensus predictions ended up being dead wrong.

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-28/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

 

As a reminder, we were right on the heels of 2022 – a far more challenging year, which had just ended with a dismal record – the worst year in more than a decade for global equities and bonds.[3] The benchmark S&P 500 equity index shed 19.4% for the year, losing roughly $8 trillion in market cap.[4] Tech-heavy Nasdaq saw heavy losses, losing a third of its value.  Bonds were also not spared, with Treasuries and corporate bonds logging miserable returns as the Bloomberg Aggregate US Bond Index had its worst year since its inception in 1977.[5] Treasury yields rose (prices lower) on the final trading day, with the 10-year US Government Bond rate touching a seven-week high.[6]

Despite Wall Street’s understandably cautious outlook heading into 2023, the S&P 500 equity index gained 24% in 2023, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 43%, its biggest surge since the dot-com boom in 1999.[7],[8] By the end of December, the S&P 500 had traded close to its all-time high.[9]

In 2023, stocks were fueled largely by excitement over the potential growth in artificial intelligence and growing bets that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates.[10] Declining interest rates and lower bond yields typically lead to higher bond prices. A drop in yields also takes some pressure off steep borrowing costs.

 

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/biggest-two-month-rally-decades-rescues-beaten-up-bond-markets-2023-12-28/

 

As the year drew to a close, markets enjoyed a spirited Santa rally. To cap off a stellar year, stocks climbed nine weeks in a row while bond markets pulled off its biggest two-month rally in decades.[11]

 

Holiday Sales: Consumers Shine

In a year of upside surprises for stocks and the economy, the strength of the consumer was noteworthy.

Stronger household finances since the pandemic’s onset have so far provided a buffer against higher borrowing costs. Between 2019 and 2022, median inflation-adjusted family wealth across all demographics and income groups soared 37% – a historic leap.[12] Thanks in part to Congressional relief programs, many families saved and reduced debt. Debt burdens, as a percentage of income or wealth, are near historic lows.[13]

Consumers have kept spending. U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in November, signaling a healthy start to the holiday shopping season.

According to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, online and in-store retail sales from Nov.1 to Dec 24 grew 3.1% from the previous year.[14] Sales were strong amid deep discounting, and spending at restaurants also rose 7.8% over the same period.[15],[16] The numbers are not adjusted for inflation. A robust consumer is likely to keep the economy on track for moderate growth to end the year.

 

Peak Rates and a Pivot

Amidst this backdrop of consumer strength, confidence has been growing that the U.S. economy is headed towards a relatively stable and gradual slowdown – in other words, the elusive “soft landing.”

In response to declining inflation, the Federal Reserve (‘Fed”) kept its policy rate steady at 5.25% – 5.5% in its December meeting.[17] At the same time, Fed officials released increasingly optimistic economic projections that inflation would moderate faster with only a modest increase in the unemployment rate.[18] After all, the data is headed in the right direction — consumer prices actually fell in November on a monthly basis for the first time in over three years, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.[19]

The Fed meeting marked a clear shift. Officials now appear more optimistic about achieving sustainably lower inflation, which has led them to discuss the conditions that would trigger rate cuts. Rate cuts would bring relief from borrowing costs that climbed to its highest levels in a decade in October.[20] While reducing inflation back down to 2% is the goal, the Fed currently doesn’t expect this to happen until 2026.[21]

The equities rally has drawn strength recently from speculation that rate cuts would begin by mid-2024.[22] Fed estimates indicate 75 bps of rate cuts for 2024, up from the previously anticipated 50 bps.[23] In fact, markets have been pricing in earlier and deeper rate cuts of up to 150 bps for the year.[24]

 

Labor Market: The Backbone of Economic Resilience

As talks of rate cuts swirl, the spotlight remains on the resilient workforce. A firm labor market could keep services inflation afloat. But a robust jobs market also offers crucial support for the Fed’s tightrope walk towards a soft landing.

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-01/labor-will-keep-the-us-economy-out-of-a-recession-in-2024

 

Economists expect the US Labor Department to report that the unemployment rate held below 4% in December for the 23rd consecutive month – a feat not seen since the 1960s.[25] This rock-solid employment picture comes hand-in-hand with wage growth outpacing inflation, especially for lower-income earners. Rising productivity could also sustain wage gains above pre-pandemic levels.

 

What’s Next

Going into 2024, the mood may be rosier, but growth will likely slow. Bloomberg Economics forecasts 2024 could be the weakest non-crisis year since the early part of the century.[26] Monetary policy tends to operate with a lagged effect, and it’s difficult to assess when the full weight of higher borrowing costs will be felt. Higher debt costs and lower credit availability could put a dent in future spending.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-22/euphoria-on-pivot-prospects-ignores-the-lagging-hangover-that-will-hurt-economy

 

Looking back on the past year with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we’re reminded that markets are as variable as they are fascinating. That’s why our approach prioritizes a disciplined, long-term approach over crystal ball gazing. We believe in building resilient portfolios to withstand turbulence, so you can embrace the ride without fearing the next turn.

The new year is often a good time for reflection, revisiting and modifying goals, planning for the known, and preparing for the unknown. As always, please reach out if you have had a change in your financial objectives or circumstances. We are always here to support you and are excited to see what lies ahead. Wishing you a new year filled with good health and happiness!

 

Your Friends at JSF

 

 

 

 


The information expressed herein are those of JSF Financial, LLC, it does not necessarily reflect the views of NewEdge Securities, Inc. Neither JSF Financial LLC nor NewEdge Securities, Inc. gives tax or legal advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation or recommendation for the purchase, sale or holding of any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

Historical data shown represents past performance and does not guarantee comparable future results. The information and statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources believed to be reliable but in no way are guaranteed by JSF Financial, LLC or NewEdge Securities, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. The information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the trades referenced in this material before investing.

Asset Allocation and Diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes Treasury securities, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market.

The Nasdaq Composite is a market-capitalization-weighted index consisting of all Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds or deben­ture securities.

Treasury Bond- is a U.S. government debt security with a fixed interest rate and maturity between two and 10 years.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period. GDP is the most commonly used measure of economic activity.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.­­

Sources:

[1] Shares dip to cap stellar year; Treasuries end volatile 2023 flat | Reuters

[2] ‘Everyone Got Burned’: Wall Street Missed the Great Stock Rally of 2023 (yahoo.com)

[3] https://www.jsffinancial.com/december_2022_markets/

[4] https://www.jsffinancial.com/december_2022_markets/

[5] https://www.jsffinancial.com/december_2022_markets/

[6] https://www.jsffinancial.com/december_2022_markets/

[7] Global markets kick off the new year on lackluster note (yahoo.com)

[8] ‘Everyone Got Burned’: Wall Street Missed the Great Stock Rally of 2023 (yahoo.com)

[9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-tread-water-p-224046345.html

[10] AI Mania Driving Nasdaq 100’s Best Run Since 1999: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[11] Biggest two-month rally in decades rescues beaten-up bond markets | Reuters

[12] Labor Will Keep the US Economy Out of a Recession in 2024 – Bloomberg

[13] Labor Will Keep the US Economy Out of a Recession in 2024 – Bloomberg

[14] Holiday Spending Increased, Defying Fears of a Decline – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[15] Holiday Spending Increased, Defying Fears of a Decline – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[16] US economic data points to ‘real momentum’ for 2024, White House says | Reuters

[17] Fed’s Dovish Pivot Reflects Lessons From History | PIMCO

[18] Fed’s Dovish Pivot Reflects Lessons From History | PIMCO

19] Interest rate cuts and a soft landing: This will be a critical year for the Fed | CNN Business

[20] Biggest two-month rally in decades rescues beaten-up bond markets | Reuters

[21] Interest rate cuts and a soft landing: This will be a critical year for the Fed | CNN Business

[22] Five Things to Look For in US Stocks in 2024 as S&P Nears Record – Bloomberg (Five things to look for in U.S. stocks in 2024 as S&P nears record | Economy | unionleader.com)

[23] Fed’s Dovish Pivot Reflects Lessons From History | PIMCO

[24] Five Things to Look For in US Stocks in 2024 as S&P Nears Record – Bloomberg

[25] Labor Will Keep the US Economy Out of a Recession in 2024 – Bloomberg

[26] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-22/euphoria-on-pivot-prospects-ignores-the-lagging-hangover-that-will-hurt-economy

 

Read more

15 December

Optimism Ignites Rally

By in Market Update

Quick Take: Stocks and bonds had one of its best Novembers in decades as investors speculated the Fed would end its interest rate hiking campaign.[1],[2]

 

“For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Newton’s timeless principle resonates beyond physics, often showing up in market action. In November, stock markets enjoyed a strong rebound after a multi-month losing streak.[3]

Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-30-2023-d5f0efb6

 

US stock markets posted the best month in almost a year and a half, with the Nasdaq ending up 10.7% and the S&P not far behind, rising 8.9%. [4],[5] Stocks began rallying after bond yields peaked in October.[6] It’s important to note that bond prices generally rise when yields fall and vice versa.

Bond yields eased after the Federal Reserve voted to leave rates unchanged on Nov 1, and Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank might be done raising interest rates for now.[7]

Equities continued to pick up steam midmonth after data showed consumer prices fell by more than Wall Street expected.[8]  The combination of slower consumer spending and easing inflation boosted expectations that the Fed is done raising rates.[9]

 

Beaten Down Sectors Rally

Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/these-are-some-of-the-stocks-leading-the-markets-year-end-rally-0da16b93

 

As investors look for an end to the rate hike cycle, the resurgence in stocks has been fueled by beaten-down sectors and those sensitive to higher borrowing costs, like information technology, real estate, and financials.[10] A broad based rally might indicate that investors are looking for bargains.

Bargain hunting reflects optimism that the economy pulled off a soft landing this year and should avoid a deep recession in 2024. Another reason to celebrate? Rising corporate profits, which rose by 6.7% in the third quarter compared with an increase of 1.6% in the second quarter.[11]

Amidst the gains, there are cautionary notes – we see signs of slowing economic momentum, especially in manufacturing.[12] Jobs and wage growth are slowing, and household disposable income is losing steam.[13]

 

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/dfaf27ac-e84f-4e33-9984-19194cf63dd7

 

Even so, stocks were content with the economic news, though liquidity may also have been a factor.[14] Liquidity seems to be rising again, as measured by the reserves commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve Bank.[15] Although liquidity alone does not necessarily push stocks higher, its presence can create a tailwind for stocks.

 

2023 Shutdown Avoided

In the midst of this market optimism, the US government managed to avoid a government shutdown with a stopgap bill just days before funding would have expired.[16] Uncertainty had been rising after eight GOP lawmakers led the effort to remove Kevin McCarthy from the House speakership in October.[17] The current House speaker, Mike Johnson, was elected to his post three weeks following McCarthy’s ouster.[18] With a short timeline left before a looming government shutdown, Johnson needed bipartisan votes to pass a continuing resolution extending funding levels.[19]

The new legislation funds the government at current spending levels with staggered funding expiration dates. [20] Around 20% of the government is financed through January 19, with the rest financed until February 2, which leaves two possible dates for partial government shutdowns. [21]

The extreme partisanship triggering these standoffs led Moody’s to lower its outlook for the US credit rating to negative.[22] A potential credit downgrade could drive borrowing costs higher and make it more expensive for Americans to borrow money.

 

Bonds Welcome Treasury Auction Adjustments

As Congress wrestles with trying to pass spending bills, the US Treasury Department has its own challenges with accommodating growing US deficits.[23] The gap between federal spending and revenue has widened more than expected as tax revenues dropped and interest costs expanded from higher rates. [24] As a result, the Treasury had to increase its sales of longer-term debt at its August quarterly announcement, which helped to fuel a bond rout through the summer and early fall where the 10-year yield touched 5% in October. [25]

Treasury auctions are becoming more important as investors worry about the swelling supply of long-term debt. However, this past month the Treasury pleasantly surprised Wall Street by cutting back on expected increases in long-term bonds to favor more short-term debt, which sparked a rally in Treasury bonds. [26]

Bonds posted their biggest monthly gain since the mid-1980s, with Bloomberg’s U.S. Aggregate Bond index rising 4.8% from the bond-buying spree. [27]

 

What’s Next: Rate Cut Expectations

November sentiment was generally optimistic, and after the month’s $3 trillion surge, the S&P 500 ended just 5% away from all-time highs.[28] For 2023, the benchmark equity index is up around 19%,[29] although many other asset classes have struggled this year.

The Federal Reserve meets for its final time of the year Dec 12-13, when they will issue a summary of economic projections and perhaps shed more light on the path of rates .[30] Markets expect over 100 basis points of cuts next year and are fully pricing in a rate cut by May, with almost a 50% chance of a move in March.[31] Historically, the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycles have been pivotal moments that delivered double-digit returns for stocks.[32]

As we usher in the holidays, we reflect on a year that has brought opportunities but also tested the patience of investors. Instead of getting caught reacting to the unpredictability of markets, we’re here to proactively navigate the ups and downs with you, and seek tax efficiency while regularly aligning your investments with your long-term goals. The true strength of a well-crafted investment plan lies in its ability to adapt and thrive across different market conditions.

Thank you for your trust in us and the opportunity to dedicate our team to your financial peace of mind.

During this festive time, we extend our heartfelt wishes to you and your loved ones for a joyful holiday season! May you enjoy gatherings with family and friends – filled with laughter and love – and a splendid new year!

Your friends at JSF

 

 

 


The information expressed herein are those of JSF Financial, LLC, it does not necessarily reflect the views of NewEdge Securities, Inc. Neither JSF Financial LLC nor NewEdge Securities, Inc. gives tax or legal advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation or recommendation for the purchase, sale or holding of any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

Historical data shown represents past performance and does not guarantee comparable future results. The information and statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources believed to be reliable but in no way are guaranteed by JSF Financial, LLC or NewEdge Securities, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. The information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the trades referenced in this material before investing.

Asset Allocation and Diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes Treasury securities, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market.

The Nasdaq Composite is a market-capitalization-weighted index consisting of all Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds or deben­ture securities.

Treasury Bond- is a U.S. government debt security with a fixed interest rate and maturity between two and 10 years.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period. GDP is the most commonly used measure of economic activity.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.­­

Sources:

[1] S&P 500 Has One of Best November Gains in Century: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[2] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-30-2023-d5f0efb6

[3] Dow Finishes November at 2023 High – WSJ

[4] Dow Finishes November at 2023 High – WSJ

[5] S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street (yahoo.com)

[6] Dow Finishes November at 2023 High – WSJ

[7] Fed Extends Pause on Rate Hikes but Keeps Door Open to Moving Higher – WSJ

[8] Dow Finishes November at 2023 High – WSJ

[9] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-30-2023-d5f0efb6

[10] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/these-are-some-of-the-stocks-leading-the-markets-year-end-rally-0da16b93

[11] How Rising Profits Could Prevent the Economy From Faltering – WSJ

[12] US manufacturing mired in weakness, economy heading for slowdown | Reuters

[13] US Economic Slowdown Has Begun as Consumer Spending Cools – Bloomberg (Americans Are Finally Turning Frugal After Splurging Over Summer (fa-mag.com))

[14] https://www.ft.com/content/dfaf27ac-e84f-4e33-9984-19194cf63dd7

[15] https://www.ft.com/content/dfaf27ac-e84f-4e33-9984-19194cf63dd7

[16] Congress ends threat of a government shutdown | AP News

[17] Here are the 8 House Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy as House speaker | CNN Politics

[18] Trump ally Mike Johnson elected House speaker three weeks after McCarthy ouster | CNN Politics

[19] US House passes spending bill to avert government shutdown | Reuters

[20] Senate passes bill to avert government shutdown, sending it to Biden to sign – The Washington Post

[21] Senate passes bill to avert government shutdown, sending it to Biden to sign – The Washington Post

[22] Moody’s sends a warning to America: Your last AAA credit rating is at risk | CNN Business

[23] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-loves-washingtons-new-debt-approachfor-now-555a9501

[24] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-loves-washingtons-new-debt-approachfor-now-555a9501

[25] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-loves-washingtons-new-debt-approachfor-now-555a9501

[26] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-loves-washingtons-new-debt-approachfor-now-555a9501

[27] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-30-2023-d5f0efb6

[28] S&P 500 Has One of Best November Gains in Century: Markets Wrap (yahoo.com)

[29] S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street (yahoo.com)

[30] The Fed – Meeting calendars and information (federalreserve.gov)

[31] Morning Bid: Powell’s final shot to shape markets before December Fed meeting | Reuters

[32] S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street (yahoo.com)

 

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